“leverage in retail forex customer accounts would be subject to a 10-to-1 limitation,”

It seems they are proposing a 10 to 1 maximum leverage for retail traders.

Most retail traders are small account traders compared to institutions.

It may seem that the CFTC is trying to “safeguard” the trading public and marketplace with these new proposed changes. However the reality is that most financial disasters that occur because of over leveraged trading are because of a rogue trader at an institutional trading desk who is trading unchecked and without restraint.

Most retail traders currently trade at upwards of 100 to 1 or even 200 to 1 leverage. Most retail traders also trade less than 10 standard size lots which is less than 1 million dollars worth of currency. The current standard leverage amounts allow traders to control $100,000 worth of currency for a $500 or $1000 margin.

If the new rules are enacted  it will mean traders will have to put up $10k to trade a standard size lot of foreign currency, instead of $500 or $1000.

This will put most retail traders out of business and many retail forex brokers will go with them by the wayside. Instead institutional FX trading desks will continue to thrive and trade higher leveraged amounts.

Instead of safeguarding the industry the new rules will put a damper on the industry in general yet still allow institutional traders to continue to trade with the higher unchecked leverage amounts.

In other words the new rules will do nothing but curb the growth of one of the fastest growing sectors in the financial services and markets.

Since forex dealing desks and retail brokers are highly computerized and mark to market on a tick by tick basis, there is virtually almost zero chance that a retail trader would go into the red on a bad trade. His position would be liquidated well before the balance on his account went into negative territory.

On the other hand, many institutional transactions are done with a phone call and a promise and not marked to market tick by tick, but by daily accounting, the promise to deliver funds on a trade are as good or as big as the institution behind the trade. Because of this, we unfortunately hear of over leveraged trading desks at times almost bankrupting a bank or trading firm because of a rogue trader.

We think the new 10 to 1 rule will cause retail traders to open accounts outside the USA and existing brokers will just funnel their retail USA business to a foreign trading desk.

The FX market is the larget market in the world.

Although the CFTC may appear to be doing something good for the industry, the bottom line is that it will ultimately end up not making much impact and become difficult to implement effectively.

If you are just starting out in the stock trading business or if you are already in it, you may have heard the term Forex trading quite a few times, but you probably might not have a clue on what it may actually mean.

Forex or foreign exchange trading is actually the largest and a fast-rising financial industry in stock trading these days. Here is a quick introduction to trading in foreign exchange.

What Is Forex Trading?

The Foreign Exchange market (Forex) is actually the largest financial market in the world. It actually makes a volume of over 2 trillion U.S. dollars a day, and as compared to its counterpart –the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) which usually only trades a volume of 25 billion dollars each day, this industry is so huge that it becomes a profitable playground for many investors including central banks, large banks, multinational companies and even governments.

What is actually traded on the foreign exchange is money. It actually consists of the concurrent buying and selling of currencies, which are traded through brokers and are traded in pairs.

When you are buying currency, it is like you are investing on the economy of a particular country. For example, if you buy U.S. dollars then it is as if you are buying a share of the U.S. economy. Whatever the market thinks about the current health of a country’s economy would directly be reflected on the price of its legal tender and this is how currencies go up or down.

Forex Trading For The Masses

Originally the whole concept of trading in the Foreign Exchange was only intended for huge companies and banks, but not for normal citizens. After all, you could only take part in the trade if you have around ten to fifty million dollars minimum.

However, with the rise of globalization through the Internet, trading is now offered to retail traders. And these days, almost anyone can now invest on the foreign trade. All you really need to join is some small amount of money, a computer and a high-speed Internet connection, and you can sign up for an account with online Forex trading firms.

There is no exact physical office for Foreign Exchange unlike its counterpart in New York. However, the three main centers for this trade are United States, United Kingdom and Japan. These countries handle majority of Forex transactions and trades goes on for 24 hours everyday.

Today, the Foreign Exchange, as the largest market in the world, is fast paced and enormous. And it has become a very lucrative arena for many traders who may have had participated in stock trading and in other markets. Many large institutions and even smaller-based individuals have gone out to play in this market.

Although this particular market gives huge promises, remember that there is still too much at stake. It is estimated that around 70 to 90 percent of the Foreign Exchange market is still speculative. And the parties that trade currencies may not always have a plan to actually take delivery of the said currency, and more are still speculating on movement of money.

If you are interested in investing in this particular arena, take time to be familiar with the game and make sure you get the right educational background. Taking the extra mile will all be worth it, and once you have tasted your success in this arena, you will be ready to take on anything in trading.

The Foreign Exchange or Forex is the largest market today for stock trading, and it is continually growing with more and more people investing in it. However, as promising as this market may be when it comes to profit, like any other trade it can be very volatile as well.

It is therefore important to be familiar with certain factors that influence trends in the Forex market if you are decided in joining this arena. After all, acquainting yourself with the many scenarios that can cause currencies to go up or down can help you a lot in making decisions for when to buy or sell.

There are basically three major factors that affect the Foreign Exchange –a country’s economy, political conditions and market psychology.

Economy

Economic factors are the most basic things that create changes in a country’s currency. When such economic conditions as a budget deficit or surplus is present within a country, there will surely be reactions in the market and values will be reflected on currencies. Other conditions may also include inflation trends, and the general economic growth of the country.

The more prosperous a country’s economy is, the more investors will be able to adhere to doing trade in a more positive attitude. Such indicators as a growth in a nation’s gross domestic product (GDP), employment levels and retail sales among others will basically attract more investors and that nation’s currency value will likely go up.

Political Conditions

Another very important factor that influence trends in Forex, are the conditions of a country’s political sector. This is because political instability or turmoil can generally create negative fluctuations to an economy. But if such instances occur wherein a country may rise above political obstacles, the opposite may occur and the economy may improve.

Events in a region can surely create negative or positive interest among investors for a nation’s currency. And so, such conditions surely influence the trends for demands and prices of a certain currency.

Market Psychology

Of course, the perception of traders and investors will greatly influence the Foreign Exchange market in so many ways. After all, the market is highly dependent on whether or not people would want to invest on a country’s economy in order to determine whether currency prices will go up or down.

For example, such conditions wherein unsettling international events may happen, then under the “flight of quality” rule, people would generally want to look for a safe haven for their investments. Whenever there is a greater demand for a certain country’s economy, then a higher price will be given to buyers and the currency’s value will go up and become stronger.

Other events that contribute to traders’ perceptions may be long-term trends where people invest based on what they have seen for a long period and time, and even economic numbers where people may base their investments depending on what numbers show a greater value.

The market in Foreign Exchange is often unpredictable and fluctuating. Therefore if you are interested in doing trades in this market, make sure that you take the time to be knowledgeable about good strategies that can help you play the game.

But more importantly, keep in updating yourself with the different economic trends in the international scene. After all, this currency market would greatly revolve upon events that would occur in the different countries. Familiarizing yourself with the factors that affect the Forex will surely help you make better decisions.

There are three important differences between investing and trading. Overlooking them can lead to confusion. A beginning trader, for example, may use the terms interchangeably and misapply their rules with mixed and unrepeatable results. Investing and trading become more effective when their differences are clearly recognized. An investor’s goal is to take long term ownership of an instrument with a high level of confidence that it will continually increase in value. A trader buys and sells to capitalize on short term relative changes in value with a somewhat lower level of confidence. Goals, time frame and levels of confidence can be used to outline two completely different sets of rules. This will not be an exhaustive discussion of those rules but is intended to highlight some important practical implications of their differences. Long term investing is discussed first followed by short term trading.

My mentor, Dr. Stephen Cooper, defines long term investing as buying and holding an instrument for 5 years or more. The reason for this seemingly narrow definition is that when one invests long term, the idea is to “buy and hold” or “buy and forget”. In order to do this, it is necessary to take the emotions of greed and fear out of the equation. Mutual funds are favored because of they are professionally managed and they naturally diversify your investment over dozens or even hundreds of stocks. This does not mean just any mutual fund and it does not mean that one has to stay with the same mutual fund for the entire time. But it does imply that one stays within the investment class.

First, the fund in question should have at least a 5 or 10 year track record of proven annual gains. You should feel confident that the investment is reasonably safe. You are not continually watching the markets to take advantage of or to avoid short term ups and downs. You have a plan.

Second, performance of the instrument in question should be measured in terms of a well defined benchmark. One such benchmark is the S&P 500 Index that is an average of the performance of 500 of the largest and best performing stocks in the US markets. Looking back as far as the 1930′s, over any 5 year period the S&P 500 Index has gained in price about 96% of the time. This is quite remarkable. If one widens the window to 10 years, he finds that over any 10 year period the Index has gained in price 100% of the time. The S&P500 Index has gained an average of 10.9% a year for the past 10 years. So the S&P500 Index is the benchmark.

If one just invests in the S&P500 index, he can expect to earn, on average, about 10.9% a year. There are many ways to enter this kind of investment. One way is to buy the trading symbol SPY, which is an Exchange Traded Fund that tracks the S&P500 and trades just like a stock. Or, one can buy a mutual fund that tracks the S&P500, such as the Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund with a trading symbol VFINX. There are others, as well. Yahoo.com has a mutual fund screener that lists scores of mutual funds having annualized returns in excess of 20% over the past 5 years. However, one should try to find a screener that gives performance for the past 10 years or more, if possible. To put this into perspective, 90% of the 10,000 or so mutual funds that exist do not perform as well as the S&P500 each year.

The fact that 10.9% is average market performance for the past 10 years is all the more remarkable when one considers that the average bank deposit yield is less than 2%, 10 year Treasury yields are about 4.2% and 30 year Treasury yields are only 4.8%. Corporate bond yields approximate those of the S&P500. There is a reason for this disparity, though. Treasuries are considered the safest of all paper investments, being backed by the United States Government. FDIC regulated savings accounts are probably the next safest while stocks and corporate bonds are considered a bit more risky. Savings accounts are possibly the most liquid, followed by stocks and bonds.

To help you calibrate the safety and liquidity question, the long bond holders are comparing bond yields they now receive with next year’s anticipated stock yields. Consider that next year’s anticipated S&P500 yield is around 4.7% based on the reciprocal of its average price to earnings ratio (P/E) of 21.2. Yet the 10 year annualized return of the index has been 10.9%. Bond holders are prepared to accept half the historical yield of stocks for added safety and stability. In any given year, stocks may go either up or down. Bond yields are not expected to fluctuate widely from one year to the next, although they have been know to do so. It is as if bond holders want to be free to invest short term, as well as, long term. Many bond holders are thereby traders and not investors and accept a lower yield for this flexibility. But if one has decided once and for all that an investment is for the long term, high yield stock mutual funds or the S&P500 Index, itself, seem the best way to go. Using the simple compound interest formula, $10,000 invested in the S&P500 index at 10.9% a year becomes $132,827.70 after 25 years. At 21%, the amount after 25 years is more than $1 million. If in addition to averaging 21%, one adds just $100 a month, the total amount after 25 years exceeds $1.8 million. Dr. C. rightly believes that 90% of one’s capital should be allocated over a several such investments.

Now that you’ve allocated 90% of your funds to long term investing, that leaves you about 10% for trading. Short to intermediate term trading is an area that most of us are more familiar with, probably due to its popularity. Yet it is significantly more complex and only about 12% of traders are successful. The time frame for trading is less than 5 years and is more typically from a couple of minutes to a couple of years. The typical probability of being right on the direction of a trade approaches an average high of about 70% when an appropriate trading system is used to less than about 30% without a trading system.

Even at the low end of the spectrum, you can avoid getting wiped out by managing the size of your trades to less than about 4% of your trading portfolio and limiting each loss to no more than 25% of any given trade while letting your winners run until they decrease by no more than 25% from their peak. These percentages can be increased after there is evidence that the probability of choosing the correct direction of a trade has improved.

Intermediate term trading is based more on fundamental analysis which attempts to assign a value to a company’s stock based on its history of earnings, assets, cash flow, sales and any number of objective measures in relation to its current stock price. It may also include projections of future earnings based on news of business agreements and changing market conditions. Some refer to this as value investing. In any case, the objective is to buy a company’s stock at bargain prices and wait for the market to realize its value and bid up the price before selling. When the stock is fairly priced, the instrument is sold unless one sees continuing growth in the value of the stock, in which case he moves it over into the investment category.

Since trading depends on the changing perceived value of a stock, your trading time frame should be chosen based on how well you are able detach yourself from the emotions of greed and fear. The better one can remove emotions from trading, the shorter the time frame he can successfully trade. On the other hand, when you feel surges of emotion before, during or immediately after a trade, it’s time to step back and consider choosing your trades more carefully and trading less frequently. One’s ability to remove emotions from trading takes a great deal of practice.

This is not just a moral statement. An entire universe of what’s called technical analysis is based on the aggregate emotional behavior of traders and forms the basis of short term trading. Technical analysis is a study of price and volume patterns of a stock over time. Pure technicians, as they are called, claim that all pertinent news and valuations are imbedded into a stock’s technical behavior. A long list of technical indicators has evolved to describe the emotional behavior of the stock market. Most technical indicators are based on moving averages over a predefined time period. Indicator time periods should be adjusted to fit the trading time frame. The subject is far too large to do it justice in less than several volumes of print. The lower level of confidence involved in trading is the reason for the large number of indicators used.

While long term investors may use only a single long term moving average with confidence to track steadily increasing value, traders use multiple indicators to deal with shorter time frames of oscillating value and higher risk. To improve your results and make them more repeatable, consider your expectations of changing value, your time frame and your level of confidence in predicting the outcome. Then you will know which set of rules to apply.

James Andrews publishes the Wiser Trader Stocks and Options Newsletter. Information on selected stock market trading systems, including those of Dr Stephen Cooper, can be found at http://www.wisertrader.com/tradingsystems/stockandoptiontrading.html. © 2004 Permission is granted to reproduce this article, as long as, this paragraph is included intact.

Article reprinted with permission from netterweb.com

1. Never put up trading money you can’t afford to lose.

Never trade with your house payment, rent, car payment, etc. Never mortgage your property for trading capital. You are playing with fire if you violate the first rule of trading. The fact will always remain that you can or may lose a good portion or even all of your trading capital. This is why rule #1 is so important.

2. Keep your trading costs down.
There are many great brokers that offer low cost commissions, with great service and excellent trade executions. If you are a high volume trader or a frequent trader, you can save a good sum of many just by trading with a different broker. Sometimes the difference between being profitable and trading with a loss can be the cost of commissions. Explore your options, check out several brokers.

3. Be a student of the markets. Learn and use both Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis.
The top pros in every profession are constantly trying to improve their game. Trading is no different. It is one of the most competitive industries in the world with some of the brighest people involved in it. You should constantly be a “student” of the market(s) you are involved in. Constantly learning and improving your edge. Don’t rely only on Technical Analysis or just Fundamental Analysis. Although you may focus on one, understand how both pictures can influence the market.

4. Do your own homework.
Never trade solely on someone else’s suggestion or tips. Study methods are markets that you are unfamiliar with completely for YOURSELF before you put trust in it. Understand the idiosyncracies of the signals of each before you trade with it. Be responsible for your own decisions.

5. Pick your spots to enter the market. Do not enter the market blindly just because it’s moving.

Find your entry points based on careful evaluation and analysis. Don’t rush into a market just because it is moving up or down right now. Markets have a tendency to move back to retracement levels. Find an entry point based on careful analysis and stick with it. Then make small adjustments if you do not get the fill you want… but, NEVER chase a market just to get in…just find another entry point. Chasing markets usually end up being very costly.

6. Have your gameplan in advance. Don’t make it up along the way.
This goes along with rule #5. Have an overall trading game plan, and a plan for each particular trade, and stick with it. Realize trading plans involve time of entry, price of entry, contingency plans, price and time of profit and total time anticipated for the trade, along with stop loss plans. And those are just the basics. Without at least, these basics involved in each trade, you are trading haphazardly, and possibly blind.

7. Always use protective stops.
A successful Chicago floor trader once said…”Always keep your powder dry…You need your ammo for the next battle.” In other words, if you blow all of your capital or most of it on one trade, you won’t be around to trade another day. Trading opportunities come and go, but they will always appear again in the future. Always use protective stops so that you will have capital for that next trade.

8. Always use price profit targets to close part or all of your position.
A good rule of thumb is to take half of your position off the table if you are fortunate enough to be on a trade that doubles in value. This way you get your initial capital back, and still have money on the table for the trade to mature even more. A better rule of thumb is to take all of your money if you realize a double in a very quick amount of time, and then reconsider and re-evaluate the market and your options.

9. Never let a winning postion turn into a money losing trade.
If you use stops and move them along with profitable winning positions you can protect your profits. For example, if you are long only move your stops UP, if you are short, only move your stops DOWN. Move your stops only in the direction of the PROFIT. Not the other way around. Also…

10. Never let a “pre-stopped loss” turn into a bigger loss.

The brother of rule #9…Never let a small loss turn into a bigger loss. Never let a pre-determined stop loss turn into a larger losing trade. Get out when your stop is hit. Never widen your stops on a losing trade, just to stay in the trade. By changing your stop you are potentially opening the door for a much larger loss and you are deviating from your trading plan. Don’t do it. Never let a potentially small loss turn into a potentially big loss.

11. Never over-leverage yourself.
Never trade more stocks, options, or futures contract than you can afford to lose. Sure if you win it’s great, but if you lose it’s that much more dangerous.

12. Always take trading breaks. Get rest.
Trading is exciting and exhausting. Although not much physical energy is involved (unless you are a floor trader), the mental energy used is tremendous. Take breaks away from the markets just to refresh yourself, and get a different perspective on the markets and life. There is more to life than trading. Remember this.

13. Diversification is important…and safe.
The old saying goes, don’t put all of your eggs in one basket. Diversify your capital into different stocks, futures, or whatever you are trading. Keep in mind to diversify into different sectors too.

14. Don’t try to make it all in one trade, or one day, week, month, or year.
Let your methodology work for you. Making money in trading consistently is the key….and becoming a consistent trader takes time, patience and skill. There is no such thing as instant or overnight success in trading and investing. Look at trading or investing as a career or profession (even if you are only involved part time). Treat it seriously. Do not take it lightly… and remember rule #12.

15. Learn from your mistakes.
This is why rule #4 is so important. When you study your trades and understand WHY you are trading the market….When you lose money with an un-profitable trade, consider it an error in judgement, and learn from it, so that you avoid making the same mistake(s) in the future. Pros rarely make the same mistake more than once, amateurs keep on doing the same stupid things over and over. You can not afford to be an amateur in the trading business. Consider your losses an education at the “UT” – “University of Trading”, and then remember them.

Keeping these 15 rules in mind when trading should help you minimize losses and maximize your return on investment.

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